Wednesday, November 29, 2017

2018 budget: Facts behind the figures

The key parameters and assumptions adopted for the 2018 Budget of Consolidation as set out in the 2018-2020 Medium Term Expenditure Framework and Fiscal Strategy Paper include crude oil price benchmark of $45 per barrel; oil production estimate of 2.3 million barrels per day; exchange rate of N305/$; inflation rate of 12.4 per cent and real GDP growth of 3.5 per cent. Based on these assumptions and macroeconomic framework, total revenue of N6.607tn is projected to fund aggregate expenditure of N8.612tn resulting in a deficit of N2.005tn (or 1.77 per cent of the GDP) to be financed mainly by domestic and external borrowing.

As the National Assembly gets set to consider the budget proposals presented by President Muhammadu Buhari, an appreciation of the facts behind the figures will help facilitate early passage of the budget and avoid the kind of delay that characterised the 2017 budget. It will be recalled that during the consideration of the 2017 budget proposals, the National Assembly members jerked up the oil price benchmark proposed by the Executive arm from $42.5 per barrel to $44.5 per barrel, an action which took a great deal of time to get the buy-in of the executive.

This time round, the National Assembly will also be faced with the option of increasing the reference oil price above the proposed $45 per barrel. The arguments in favour of an increase appear strong and persuasive and on this score, the lawmakers will most likely get the support of the state governors for obvious reasons: an increase will translate into more money for constituency projects and increased allocations to states and local governments. Also, a higher oil price benchmark will narrow the budget deficit and reduce the size of the borrowing required to finance the deficit.

These arguments are reinforced by the favourable oil price forecasts by reputable international energy agencies such as the US Energy Information Administration which has forecast Brent spot prices to average $56 per barrel in 2018. Similarly, the World Bank expects oil prices to reach an average of $60 per barrel in 2018 from $55 per barrel this year, a reflection of upward pressure on prices from steadily growing demand, output-cut agreements among oil exporters expected to run till March 2018 and supply outages among major exporters like Libya, Nigeria and Venezuela.

However, the fact remains that the international crude oil market is very volatile and so the outlook for oil price remains highly uncertain.  Neither the international energy agencies nor the World Bank foresaw the sudden crash of crude oil price from over $100 per barrel sometime in 2014 to below $30 per barrel only a few months after. The rise in the US stockpiles remains a big threat to upward potential of prices. Data from the Energy Information Administration indicate that the United States crude inventories surged by 2.24 million barrels in the week ending November 3, 2017, the highest in more than three decades. The global investment bank, JP Morgan, expects the US shale production to continue growing through this year and into next year and so has slashed its price projection for Brent crude from $55.50 to $45 per barrel. Only recently, Goldman Sachs cut its Brent price forecast for this year to $55.39 per barrel from its previous estimate of $56.76 per barrel after predicting the return of oil glut at the expiration of the OPEC/non-OPEC deal.

In recognition of this fact, major oil exporters are toeing the cautious path. Bloomberg reports that despite the seeming rebound in oil price, Russia, one of the world’s biggest energy exporters,  has adopted a conservative oil price of $40 per barrel for the country’s 2017- 2019 national expenditure plans because “the Finance Ministry and the Central Bank of Russia want to be ready for and protect themselves against the worst-case scenario”. So, with respect to the oil price, the proposed $45 per barrel should be retained for, as the saying goes, ‘it is better to be conservative and be surprised on the upside than too optimistic and end up disappointed’.

Regarding oil output projection in the 2018 budget proposal, the option of adopting a lower output target presents itself not least because crude oil production has been far below projections in recent times. The two previous annual budgets (2016 budget and the 2017 budget) used 2.2 million barrels per day that was hardly met. As disclosed in the 2018-2020 MTEF, “average oil production fell from 2.04mbpd in February 2016 to 1.52mbpd in August 2016 before rising to 2.2mbpd by June 2017” largely on account of crude oil theft and pipeline leakages due to vandalism which had a negative impact on government revenues from the oil sector.

Nevertheless, it is pertinent to recognise that the oil output target of 2.3 million barrels per day must have been advised considering the fact that one of our own, Mohammad Sanusi Barkindo, is the current Secretary General of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. Nigeria is currently enjoying exemptions from the OPEC/non-OPEC oil output cut and so adopting a lower oil output may jeopardise the country’s chances in future negotiations with the other oil producing nations.

What is more, it is a fact that crude oil production shut-ins resulting from vandalism of oil facilities have been on the decline. For instance, the 2018-2020 MTEF disclosed that “there were 94 pipeline vandalised points in April 2017 compared to the corresponding period of April 2016 which recorded 214 cases”. Further reduction in attacks in oil facilities resulting in oil output disruptions is expected especially in the light of the “carrots” contained in the 2018 budget proposals such as the increase in the capital provision for the Ministry of Niger Delta Affairs and the Niger Delta Development Commission, the Ogoni Clean-Up project, the Amnesty programme as well as the provision for the critical East-West Road. These, alongside progress on the passage of the Petroleum Industry Bill and government’s increased engagement with militants and stakeholders in oil producing communities, will ensure improved stability in the region, reduce uncertainties and promote new private sector investments in the oil sector. Recent reports say a group known as the Niger Delta Avengers has suspended its plan to renew attacks on the nation’s oil installations in the oil-rich region. This is cheering news in support of the oil production estimate in the 2018 budget proposals.

Another budget parameter that will offer a temptation for alteration is the exchange rate of N305 to one US dollar considering that a higher and “more realistic exchange rate” will translate into more money for the three tiers of government. But this will be a dangerous adventure for the economy. Adopting a higher exchange rate will signal government’s intention to devalue the naira, promote speculative attacks on the naira, trigger inflation, complicate monetary policy and forex management for the CBN as well as mess up current efforts at economic recovery. Therefore, an exchange rate of N305/$ should be retained as it is consistent with the government’s Economic Recovery and Growth Plan. Besides, it is a fact that the Central Bank of Nigeria has restored stability to the foreign exchange market (especially since the introduction of the Investor and Exporter Foreign Exchange Window in April 2017), on the back of rising external reserves ($34bn as of October 30, 2017) sufficient to finance several months of imports.

Also considered realistic is the inflation target of 12.4 per cent given the fact that headline inflation has been trending downwards since February 2017 (down from 18.72 per cent in January 2017 to 15.98 per cent in September) due, in part, to improved liquidity in the forex market and stability in exchange rate. New investments in infrastructure and agriculture as contained in the 2018 budget will further moderate inflationary pressure.

Equipped with these facts, therefore, the National Assembly is advised to commence immediately the interrogation of the 2018 budget proposals in order to ensure its early passage.

Source: The Punch

Tuesday, November 21, 2017

21 Ways to Boost Your Business Bank Account

When cash is tight and bills need to be paid, your first instinct may be to try to get a small business loan of any kind.

But depending on the type of small business financing you’re seeking, you may need strong personal or business credit scores, or sufficient revenues or cash flow. Without them a loan may be out of reach, according to www.forbes.com.

What else can you do? Here are some alternative strategies for improving cash flow quickly and getting more money into your bank account.

Getting paid quickly means you can get money in your account faster and in turn pay your bills on time. Here are some ways to do that:

Collect outstanding invoices: If you’ve been too busy running your business (or drumming up business), you may have any number of clients that owe you money. Set aside some time to dial for naira. If clients are significantly late and won’t commit to a schedule to catch up, you may want to check their business credit reports to see whether they appear to be having financial problems. If there are red flags, you may also need to contact a collection agency or attorney with collections experience.

Factor invoices: Sometimes clients have great credit, but they simply pay slowly; usually because they can. If you do business with reputable clients that take months to pay, you may want to consider factoring some of those invoices. The factoring firm will pay you part of the money you’re owed right away, and you’ll get the rest (minus their fee) when the invoice is paid. In most cases, your client’s business credit history is more important than yours, since they are the ones that will have to make good on the money they owe.

Get to the bank instantly: If you find yourself sitting on cheques because you haven’t had time to get to the bank to deposit them, ask your financial institution about remote deposit. Another option: Request electronic or online payment of invoices so the payment will be directly deposited into your business bank account.

Ask for a bigger deposit: If you provide goods or services before your clients pay for them, consider asking for larger upfront deposits. As an added precaution, check your client’s business credit to make sure they are a good credit risk before you offer them longer to pay.

Tap your business credit card: While paying your credit card bill in full is a great way to avoid interest, there are times when you may need to carry a balance. Credit cards can be a flexible, fast way to borrow in a pinch. Just make sure you factor in the cost of interest, and try to use this strategy only when the cash crunch isn’t likely to drag on too long.

Get terms with vendors/suppliers: The companies you buy your supplies from may be willing to extend terms of 30, 60, 90 days, or even longer. This gives you additional time to pay, and it may be interest-free. (Many times companies will check your business credit before agreeing to extend terms.)

Refinance debt: Do you currently have outstanding debt? Can you negotiate more favourable terms? Perhaps use a zero per cent balance transfer to consolidate credit card debt. Lower payments can give you some breathing room, but be careful you don’t dig the hole deeper with a more expensive longer-term loan.

Pay strategically: Consider setting up automatic payment on important bills so the bills get paid when they are due, but not too far in advance. Keep cash in your pocket as long as possible.

Crowd-fund a new project: If you are trying to launch something new, consider crowd-funding as a way to raise additional funds. You don’t need good credit for most types of crowd-funding, but you do need to be able to tell a compelling story.

Renegotiate your lease: If you are leasing office space that’s simply too expensive, look into renegotiating the lease or subleasing all or some of your space. Depending on the needs of your business, perhaps you can even look into letting some members of your staff work remotely or move into a co-working space temporarily until things improve.

Leaseback equipment: If your business owns valuable equipment free and clear, you may be able to lease it back. This provides you with cash upfront, though you’ll have a lease payment.

Deliver faster: If you get paid on delivery, then perhaps you can find a way to deliver faster. For non-physical products (like services) you may need to build better systems. If you are shipping physical products, a logistics expert or even your shipper may be able to offer help for speeding up delivery without significantly increasing costs.
Sometimes you just need to bring in money as quickly as possible, and that may mean getting creative in your sales strategy.

Offer a discount: If your margins won’t suffer too much, consider offering customers a discount if they pay quickly (or even upfront). You can extend that offer to current customers, new clients, or both.

Hold a sale: A sale may allow you to move more products quickly. Again, be careful though you don’t want to lose money on each sale or get your customers in the habit of thinking that they should always expect a discount, unless that is your normal strategy.

Sell old, excess equipment or inventory: Sometimes you need to hold the business equivalent of a garage sale; get rid of old inventory or equipment you don’t need any more. With this strategy you may not be profitable, but it may be the best way to drum up cash while you offload something that wasn’t going to bring you top dollar in the first place.

Hold a sales contest: Can you offer a special incentive to your sales staff to bring in sales quickly? (Again, with an eye to margins and how those sales may impact your organisation overall.) Maybe other members of your staff who aren’t directly in sales have good ideas too. Consider a company-wide sales sprint with rewards for those who participate if they meet their target.

Offer a referral bonus: Enlist your customers to help you sell your product or service by offering a limited-time referral bonus of some kind if they send new business your way. It could be as simple as a refer-a-friend coupon or as elaborate as a special appreciation event for those who participate.

Raise prices: Sometimes a cash-flow crunch is a sign you are not charging enough. Though raising prices may feel uncomfortable, sometimes it’s the best way to get on financial solid footing. Consider offering your current customers or clients the chance to “stock up” at current prices - another way to bring in some extra cash.

Bundle your product or service: Up-sell to a more expensive price point by bundling products or services into an irresistible deal. If your customers like what you offer, they may be more than happy to spend more, as long as your value proposition is strong.

Do an expense audit: Review your spending carefully, and if you’re not seeing any areas where you can cut back, consider asking an objective third party to take a look.

Tighten the belt temporarily: You don’t want to scare your staff by suddenly cutting out all travel or company-sponsored meals, for example. But at the same time, they would no doubt prefer to keep their jobs and get a pay cheque. Be transparent about the situation and ask them for advice on ways you can tighten the belt for a bit. You can even run a contest for the best ideas and acknowledge staff contributions.

Monday, November 20, 2017

African SMEs Face $136bn Financing Gap Annually—IFC

The International Finance Corporation, IFC, a member of the World Bank Group, has estimated that in Africa, small and medium enterprises, SMEs, face a financing gap of over $136 billion annually. Oumar Seydi, IFC Director for Africa Region, disclosed this on Tuesday 14th November 2017, while addressing entrepreneurs at the SME and Banking Africa Forum in Kigali, Rwanda to facilitate opportunities for the public sector and financial institutions to unlock the potentials of African SMEs.

According to him, access to finance and financial inclusion play a critical role in enabling SMEs contribute to development. He stated: “SMEs positively impact growth, equitable income distribution and poverty reduction in developing economies. Accessible and inclusive financial products and services will help SMEs realize their potential. To address this challenge IFC has developed a suite of innovative tools aimed at promoting financial inclusion and fostering access to finance.”

He said that Small and medium enterprises account for 90 percent of all businesses in Africa, driving growth and development in the region.

He added: “IFC is supporting innovative approaches to improving financial inclusion for SMEs such as digital financial services, through which an IFC program has helped more than seven million people open digital bank accounts.”

Didier Acouetey, founder of AfricSearch and the SME & Banking Africa Forum, said: “The forum offers a unique ecosystem for SMEs as it facilitates access to funding, expertise and to new business opportunities across the continent. This year, there is a special focus on innovation in SMEs to boost their growth and improve their competitiveness” According to him, IFC  is partnering with public and private sector actors to support the development of small and medium sized enterprises to address the employment crisis and promote entrepreneurship across Africa.

Friday, November 17, 2017

Competitive SME Industry Create Wealth, Vibrant Economy

The Group Managing Director of Agile Communications, Rufai Ladipo, has said that healthy and competitive Small and Medium Enterprises, SMEs, will create wealthy and vibrant economy for Nigeria.

Speaking at the media conference to launch the median edition of Unlocking business growth through branding’, held in Lagos last week, Ladipo said, “They form the foundation on which a lot of world economies are built and currently generate a significant percentage of Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product- GDP.
SMEs Brands and Conference 2017 themed: ‘

According to a recent research, SME employees account for around 85 per cent of the total workforce in Nigeria, which is a wide margin compared to the rate with large enterprises. Having been disposed to this information, Ladipo urged both public and private sectors to channel their resources towards educating and facilitating these ventures to realise their full potential to the benefit of the entire public

He said, in keeping with this picture, the 2017 edition of the SME Brands Conference and Expo will focus on exploring and leveraging the various techniques of strategic business communication and establishing a distinct brand identity, and exploiting the media to achieve the desired positioning. “The subject of branding has been identified as a key factor in determining the viability of SMEs, as countless surveys and analysis give credence to the speculations that the rapid collapse of many ventures can be attributed to the consistent disregard for brand building,” he said, adding that “this is also while acknowledging other contributory factors such as budget and capacity”

Mrs. Bolajoko Bayo-Ajayi; Managing Director/CEO Purple Pearl Consulting, one of the organisers of the event, said, typically, when SMEs are discussed, financing, capacity building and infrastructure are the areas of concern for the stakeholders.

According to her, for the SMEs to effectively fulfill their role in the economy, branding is an idea that they need to embrace.

“The day to day business of managing a brand gives them the impression that branding is what you do when you have time or better still, they believe that once they have a logo, they are branded which is far from the truth.”

This conference is focused on equipping SME businesses to leverage the power of brand building to unlock growth. This conference will deliver valuable benefit to businesses looking to build a strong platform upon which their businesses can drive long term sustainability and growth through the acquisition of insights, tools, practical applications, and hands on experiences of our speakers and valuable networking, Bayo-Ajayi stated.

She said that it is on this premise that AGILE Communications and Purple Pearl Consulting is coming together to bring to bear our diverse experiences and expertise working with SME businesses.”

Source: Vanguard News

Wednesday, November 8, 2017

FULL TEXT OF PRESIDENT BUHARI 2018 BUDGET PRESENTATION SPEECH

President Muhammadu Buhari delivered his 2018 National Budget proposal speech to the National Assembly in Abuja on Tuesday.

The 2018 Budget has a proposed a total expenditure of N8.6 trillion representing an increase of 16 percent from the 2017 budget estimate.


The aggregate expenditure comprises:
-Recurrent costs - N3.494 trillion
-Debt servicing - N2.014 trillion
-Statutory transfers - N456 billion
-Sinking fund - N220 billion and
-Capital expenditure - N.428 trillion.
As usual, the proposed budget is carrying a deficit of N2.005 trillion, amounting to 1.77 percent of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP). The Federal Government of Nigeria would be expected to borrow an estimated sum of N1.699 trillion to finance the deficit.

Read the text of Mr. Buhari’s speech below:

PROTOCOLS

1. I am here to present 2018 Budget Proposals. Before presenting the Budget, let me thank all of you Distinguished and Honourable Members of the National Assembly, and indeed all Nigerians, for your support and prayers for my full recovery while I was on medical vacation.

2. I am very pleased to address this Joint Session of the National Assembly, on the revenue and expenditure estimates, and related matters, of the Federal Government of Nigeria for the 2018 fiscal year.

3. The 2018 Budget will consolidate on the achievements of previous budgets and deliver on Nigeria’s Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP) 2018 – 2020.

OVERVIEW OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS IN 2017

4. 2017, so far, has been a year of uncertainty on many fronts across the world. Whether it is Brexit, the crisis in the Korean Peninsular, or indeed, the political uncertainty in key oil producing nations of the Middle East and South America, we can all agree that these developments have in one way or another impacted Nigeria’s economic fortunes.

5. By all accounts, 2018 is expected to be a year of better outcomes. The tepid economic recovery is expected to pick up pace and the global political terrain is expected to stabilize. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is anticipating global GDP growth of 3.7 percent in 2018. Emerging markets and developing economies are expected to lead with GDP growth of 4.9 percent, while advanced economies are projected to grow at a slower rate of 2 percent.

6. Nigeria’s journey out of the recent recession was a revealing one. We heard many opinions from within and outside Nigeria on how best to address our economic woes. We listened carefully and studied these proposals diligently. Our belief has always been that the quickest and easiest solution may not necessarily be the best solution for a nation as diverse as ours. We took our time to create a balanced and equitable response, keeping in mind that only tailored Nigerian solutions can fix Nigeria’s unique problems.

7. And from the recovery that we are seeing today, it is clear that we made the right decisions. Distinguished and Honourable Members of the National Assembly, I am now asking you to continue to support our economic policies in order to consolidate and sustain on the success achieved so far. We simply cannot go back.

8. In the non-oil sector, crop production has been one of the main contributors to non-oil growth, which rose to 0.45 percent in the second quarter of this year. This was primarily driven by our ongoing financial, capacity building and infrastructure development programs.

9. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, working with development partners and the private sector, have embarked on numerous capacity building projects. We have also completed over 33,000 Hectares of Irrigation Projects that have increased water availability in key food producing states. We shall continue to intensify our interventions through the Anchor Borrowers’ Programme and the Presidential Fertilizer Initiative to ensure that this momentum is sustained. We have also made provisions in the 2018 Budget to complete ongoing Irrigation Projects at Ada, in Enugu State; Lower Anambra, in Anambra State; and Gari, in Jigawa State. In 2017, many factories and projects in the food and agricultural sectors were commissioned in Kebbi, Nasarawa, Kaduna, Anambra, Edo, Jigawa, Rivers, Niger, Ogun and Ebonyi States, to mention a few. This is a clear statement that our economic diversification and inclusive growth ambitions are coming to fruition.

10. Significant progress has also been made in the Solid Minerals development sector. In Ondo State, for instance, work is ongoing to fully exploit the bitumen resources to meet the 600,000 MTs of asphalt imported per annum for roads and other construction projects. To consolidate on these efforts, we have also established a 30 billion Naira Solid Minerals Development Fund to support other minerals exploration activities across the country.

11. In the oil and gas sector, the relatively higher crude oil prices supported our economic recovery. Our mutually beneficial engagement with oil producing communities in the Niger Delta contributed immensely to the recovery in oil production experienced in recent months. We would like to thank the leadership and communities in the Niger-Delta for their continued support and to also reiterate our assurances that this Administration will continue to honour our commitments to them. We cannot afford to go back to those dark days of insecurity and vandalism. We all want a country that is safe, stable and secure for our families and communities. This means we must all come together to address any grievances through dialogue and peaceful engagement. Threats, intimidation or violence are never the answer.

12. We are working hard on the Ogoni Clean-up Project. During the year, we engaged 8 international and local companies proposing different technologies for the mandate. To enable us select the best and most suitable technology for the remediation work, we asked each company to conduct Demonstration Clean-up Exercises in the 4 Local Government Areas of Ogoni Land. These Demonstrations were recently concluded and the results are being studied by the Governing Council of the Ogoni Clean-up Project. Although the Project will be funded by the International Oil Companies, we have made provisions in the 2018 Budget for the costs of oversight and governance, to ensure effective implementation.

13. On the international front, I would like to thank our friends and partners in the Joint OPEC / Non-OPEC Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) who graciously granted Nigeria an exemption from the output cuts imposed on OPEC Member Countries in January 2017. This exemption, which was extended in September 2017, significantly helped during our most challenging time. We shall continue our positive engagement with other oil producing nations to ensure that the momentum generated is sustained.

14. Permit me, Mr. Senate President and Right Honourable Speaker, to state that despite the downturn in oil prices and our challenging economic circumstances, this Administration was able to invest an unprecedented sum of over 1.2 trillion Naira in capital projects through the 2016 Budget. This is the highest ever in the history of this country. This is a clear demonstration of our commitment to consolidate on our economic diversification reforms and lay a stronger foundation for future growth and development.

15. Our Sovereign Wealth Fund, which was established in 2011 with US$1 billion, did not receive additional investment for 4 years when oil prices were as high as US$120 per barrel. However, despite record low oil prices, this Administration was able to invest an additional US$500 million into the Fund. This further demonstrates that in our struggle to have a stable and secure nation today, we have not, and will not, lose sight of the need to lay a solid foundation for the future prosperity of successive generations.

16. We have asked the Sovereign Wealth Fund to look inward and invest locally. Some of the successes we are seeing today in the agricultural sector are driven by this new investment approach by the Nigeria Sovereign Investment Authority (NSIA). The NSIA also has a very strong pipeline of local investments that will support our inclusive and diversified economic growth plan.

17. Stability has been restored to the foreign exchange market due to the interventions by the Central Bank of Nigeria to improve access to liquidity, discourage currency speculation and increase net foreign exchange inflows. As at the 30th of October, 2017, our external reserves had increased to US$34bn. This stability has supported our efforts to provide the enabling environment and interventions needed to empower Micro, Small and Medium-Sized enterprises, investors, manufacturers and exporters, to sustain and in some cases, grow their operations. Indeed, by the second quarter of 2017, exports significantly outpaced imports, resulting in a trade surplus of 506.5 billion Naira.

Ease of Doing Business Reforms

18. One of the targets we set for gauging our progress in creating an enabling environment for business was to achieve a positive movement in the World Ease of Doing Business Index. You would recall Nigeria experienced a decade-long decline in this ranking. In 2008, Nigeria was ranked 120th. By 2015, our situation had deteriorated to 169th of the 189 countries surveyed. Our very simple, logical and user-friendly reforms are reversing this trend. A recently released World Bank business ranking report announced that Nigeria had moved 24 places to 145th position in 2017. I am delighted that we have met and even surpassed our target of moving at least 20 paces up this global ranking. The same World Bank report also stated that Nigeria is among the top 10 reforming countries in the world.

19. To ensure these reforms are institutionalized, Executive Order Number #1 on the Promotion of Transparency and Efficiency in the Business Environment was issued in May 2017. The Order contained measures that ease the process of business registration, approval of permits, granting visas and streamlining port operations. We are committed to continuing and accelerating the Ease of Doing Business reforms, which are critical to attracting new investments, growing the economy and creating jobs for our people.

Improved Tax Administration

20. Although the economy is diversified with non-oil Sector accounting for over 90 percent of total Nominal GDP, the Government’s revenues are not as diversified yet. Our Tax-to-GDP ratio of about 6% is one of the lowest in the world. This situation is not consistent with our goal of having a diversified, sustainable and inclusive economy. Accordingly, we are stepping up efforts to ensure all taxable Nigerians comply with the legal requirement to declare income from all sources and remit taxes due to the appropriate authorities.

21. Already, we have introduced the Voluntary Assets and Income Declaration Scheme (VAIDS) on the 1st of July, 2017. The Scheme provides non-compliant taxpayers with a nine-month window to regularise their tax status relating to historical periods. In return, overdue interest and penalties will be forgiven. In addition, no investigations or criminal charges will be brought against participating taxpayers. We expect that this Scheme will widen the tax net for both the Federal and State Governments. I am therefore, asking all Nigerians to seize this opportunity and do right thing. Let us not shy away from our duty to build a better Nigeria.

Optimising Efficiency in Expenditure

22. In 2016 this Administration adopted a policy of allocating at least 30 percent of our annual budget to capital expenditure. This was entrenched in the ERGP to unlock further growth in the economy. This tradition was maintained in the 2017 Budget and has been reflected in the proposal for 2018, in which 30.8 percent of total expenditure has been set aside for the capital vote.

23. To support these efforts, you would recall that an Efficiency Unit was set up under the Federal Ministry of Finance to reduce wastage, plug leakages and foster greater fiscal transparency. We have intensified the implementation of the Integrated Payroll and Personnel Information System (IPPIS) across government MDAs to automate personnel records and salaries’ payment process, with the goal of eliminating ghost workers. 461 Federal MDAs have been captured on the system, so far. Our target is to enroll all MDAs. I have directed the military and other security agencies to ensure total compliance without further delay.

Increased Investment in Infrastructure

24. Mr. Senate President, and the Right Honourable Speaker, we shall continue to develop our infrastructure across the country. Although a lot of progress has been made, the huge contractor liabilities we inherited have adversely impacted our infrastructure development timetable. Indeed, contractors were owed trillions of Naira when this Administration came into office. In some areas, we have made payments so projects may be completed; while in others, we are reconciling the liabilities to identify and settle legitimate claims. As a responsible and accountable Administration, we decided that clearing this backlog was an important priority.

25. For instance, at the outset of this Administration in 2015, the Abuja Metro-Rail Project, which began in 2007 was only 50% completed, after 8 years. Today, in just 18 months, we have pushed the project to 98% completion. This was achieved as the Nigerian Government was diligently able to meet its counterpart funding obligations for the Chinese loans.

26. We have also continued work on key strategic Roads. Over 766 kilometres of roads were constructed or rehabilitated across the country in 2017. For instance, work is at various stages of completion on these strategic roads with immense socio-economic benefits:

a. Rehabilitation of Ilorin-Jebba-Mokwa-Birnin-Gwari-Kaduna Road;

b. Dualization of Oyo-Ogbomosho-Ilorin Road;

c. Rehabilitation of Gombe-Numan-Yola Road;

d. Dualization of Kano-Maiduguri Road;

e. Rehabilitation of Sokoto-Tambuwal-Jega Road and Kotangora-Makera Road that transverse Sokoto, Kebbi and Niger States;

f. Rehabilitation and Reconstruction of Enugu-Port-Harcourt Road;

g. Rehabilitation of Enugu-Onitsha Dual Carriageway Road;

h. Rehabilitation of Aleshi-Ugep Road and the Iyamoyun-Ugep Section in Cross River State; 

i. Rehabilitation, Reconstruction and Expansion of Lagos-Ibadan Dual Carriageway Road;

j. Construction of Loko-Oweto Bridge over River Benue in Nasarawa and Benue States; and

k. Construction Gokanni Bridge along Tegina-Mokwa-Jebba Road in Niger State.

27. Under the Federal Roads Development Programme, we recently completed a Data Collection Exercise on the 7,000km Federal Road Network which was funded by the World Bank. This information is enabling us to make informed decisions regarding the planning, budgeting and management of the Federal Road Network. Going forward, we will be working based on facts rather than subjectivity.

28. Furthermore, we have also invested a lot of time and effort in identifying alternative means of funding new projects. For example, the recent 100 billion Naira Sukuk Financing will cater specifically for the development of 25 roads across the country. We also developed different structures that empower private investors to contribute to the development of roads of significant national importance. Already, we are seeing results. For example:

a. The Bonny-Bodo Road is being jointly funded by the Federal Government and Nigeria LNG Limited. This project was conceived decades ago but it was abandoned. This Administration restarted the project and when completed, it will enable road transportation access for key communities in the Niger- Delta region; and

b. The Apapa Wharf-Toll Gate Road in Lagos State is also being constructed by private sector investors in exchange for tax credits.

29. Distinguished Members of the National Assembly, our Power Sector Reforms still remain a work in progress. Although we have increased generation capacity significantly, we still have challenges with the Transmission and Distribution Networks. That said, I am pleased to announce that since 2015, the Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN) and Niger-Delta Power Holding Company (NDPHC) have added 1,950 MVA of 330-132kV transformer capacity at 10 Transmission stations, as well as 2,930 MVA of 132-33kV transformer capacity to 42 substations nationwide. With these additions, the Transmission Network today can handle up to 7,000 Mega Watts (MW).

30. The key bottleneck now is the Distribution Network where the substations cannot take more than 5,000 MW. This is constraining power delivery to consumers. We are working with the privatized Distribution Companies to see how to overcome this challenge. Nigerians should be rest assured that this Administration is doing all it can to alleviate the embarrassing power situation in this country.

31. Furthermore, to sustain the continued expansion of generation capacity and enhance evacuation, we approved a Payment Assurance Guarantee Scheme which enabled the Nigerian Bulk Electricity Trader (NBET) to raise 701 billion Naira. This assures the Generation Companies of up to 80% payment on their invoices. This intervention has brought confidence back into the sector and we expect additional investment to flow through, particularly in the gas production sector.

32. Distinguished Members of the National Assembly, this Administration is committed to the development of Green Alternative Energy Sources. To date, we have signed Power Purchase Agreements (PPA) with 14 solar companies. We also approved:

a. The completion of the 10 MW Wind Farm in Katsina State, a project that was abandoned since 2012; and

b. The concession of 6 small hydro-electric power plants with a total capacity of 50 MW.

33. To enable the successful take-off of these, and future Green Projects, I am pleased to inform this Distinguished Assembly that the Federal Government will be launching the first African Sovereign Green Bond in December 2017. The bond will be used to finance renewable energy projects. We are very excited about this development as it will go a long way in solving many of our energy challenges, especially in the hinterland.

34. On Rail, we recently received 2 additional locomotives and 10 standard gauge coaches for the Abuja-Kaduna Rail Line. These will be deployed for the new non-stop express service between the two cities that will only take one hour and fifteen minutes. This new service will complement the existing service currently in place. We plan to commission this by December 2017.

35. We have also kick-started the abandoned Itakpe-Ajaokuta-Warri Rail Line. This project has been on for over 17 years. We had to take some drastic measures but I am pleased to announce that work is ongoing and we expect to commission this service by September 2018. This service will start with 7 standard gauge coaches.

36. The situation at the Apapa port complex is a top priority for this Administration. The delays due to congestion and their adverse impact on business operations and costs is a key concern to our Government. As I mentioned earlier, we are partnering with the private sector to fix the road. We shall do the right thing considering. We will not cut corners. 

37. In addition to the road, we have also commenced the extension of the Lagos-Ibadan Standard Gauge Rail Line to connect Apapa and Tin Can Port Complexes. This project will significantly ease the congestion at the ports and enhance both export and import operations. This project shall be completed by December 2018. Already, working with the private sector, we have repaired the Apapa Port Narrow Gauge Line which is currently being used to evacuate goods from the port, thereby easing congestion.

38. As we all know, sometimes doing the right thing takes time and requires sacrifices. I am therefore appealing to all stakeholders to work with us in ensuring we deliver a solution that we will all be proud of.

39. Certainly, the infrastructure requirement to reposition Nigeria for the future is huge and our resources are limited. Government, therefore, will pursue private partnerships to maximise available capital and developmental impact. In the next fiscal year, we will also establish 7 tertiary health institutions across the country through partnership with our Sovereign Wealth Fund and other private sector investors.

Agricultural Development

40. The agricultural sector played a crucial role in Nigeria’s exit from recession. Today, it remains the largest employer of labour and holds significant potential to realise our vision of repositioning Nigeria as a food secured nation.

41. We will consolidate on existing policies and develop new ones to ensure the numerous value chain challenges in the agricultural sector are addressed. As I mentioned earlier, several investors have deployed significant capital in the production and processing of rice, sugar, maize, soya, cassava, yams, tomato, oil palm, rubber and poultry, to mention a few. We are also seeing increased investment in the agro-inputs manufacturing sector such as fertilisers.

42. We are determined to protect these investments and encourage more. Food Security is an important aspect of this Administration’s National Security agenda. Any person involved in smuggling of food items is a threat to our National Security and will therefore be dealt with accordingly. A Committee chaired by the Vice President is working on this matter. A key part of their work will be the reactivation of the Badagry Agreement signed between Nigeria and the Republic of Benin in 2003. This agreement, which was abandoned by previous Administrations, established a mutually beneficial framework for the two neighbours and allies to partner in tackling smuggling and other cross border crimes. I would like to assure investors in the agricultural value chain that the menace of smuggling will be handled decisively.

43. To further support investors and State Governments, we will accelerate the establishment of at least 6 Staple Crop Processing Zones, in the first phase. This initiative will develop infrastructure for the production, processing and storage of strategic commodities. The focus is on backward integration for grains, horticulture, livestock, fisheries and sugar; as well as exportable commodities such as cocoa, cassava and oil palms.

Health Sector Developments

44. During 2017, the country had a number of disease outbreaks such as Meningitis, Yellow Fever, Monkey Pox and Lassa Fever. I would like to commend the Federal and State Ministries of Health for their selfless service and timely responses to contain these outbreaks. I would also like to thank the World Health Organisation, the Global Fund and UNICEF, for their continued support during these trying times. This collaboration was a key factor in the low mortality rates experienced. To further improve our response to such outbreaks, we are working to upgrade our Integrated Disease Surveillance and Response System. This will further enhance the efficiency of our diagnostic and clinical management processes.

45. In this respect, I urge this Distinguished House to expedite the passage of the Bill for the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control to enable us consolidate on the successes recorded to date.

Implementing the Social Investment Program

46. I am pleased to inform you that we have recorded tremendous success in the implementation of the Federal Government’s Social Investment Program. Specifically,

a. Over 4.5 million Primary 1 to Primary 3 pupils in public schools are being fed under the School Feeding programme;

b. Over 200,000 unemployed graduates have been employed under the N-Power Scheme in education, health and agricultural sectors;

c. Over 250,000 enterprises have benefitted from the sum of 12.5 billion Naira, which has been disbursed to entrepreneurs to expand their businesses; and

d. Over 110,000 households are currently benefitting from the Conditional Cash Transfer programme across the country.

PERFORMANCE OF THE 2017 BUDGET

47. The 2017 Budget of Recovery and Growth was based on a benchmark oil price of US$44.5 per barrel, oil production of 2.2 million barrels per day, and a Naira-to-US Dollar Exchange Rate of 305. Based on these assumptions, total revenue of 5.084 trillionNaira was projected to fund aggregate expenditure of 7.441 trillion Naira. A projected fiscal deficit of 2.356 trillion Naira was to be financed mainly by domestic and external borrowing.

48. On revenue performance, collections were 14 percent below target as of September 2017, mainly due to the shortfall in non-oil revenues.

49. A key revenue shortfall was from Independent Revenues; only 155.14 billion Naira was remitted by September 2017 as against the projected pro-rated sum of 605.87 billion Naira. This represents a 74 percent shortfall, which is very disappointing.

50. This recurring issue of under-remittance of operating surpluses by State Owned Entities is absolutely unacceptable. You will all recall that in September 2017, the Joint Admissions and Matriculation Board (JAMB) announced that they were ready to remit 7.8 billion Naira back to the Government. The shocking discovery was that in the last decades, JAMB only remitted an aggregate of 51 million Naira. This clearly illustrates the abuses that occur in State Owned Entities as well as their potential for increased Independent Revenues, if only people would do the right thing. We all need to play our role to ensure the right thing is done. I would also like to remind Nigerians that the Whistle Blower lines are still open.

51. Accordingly, I have directed the Economic Management Team (EMT) to review the fiscal profiles of these agencies, to ensure strict compliance with the applicable Executive Orders and Financial Regulations. There may be a need to consider a review of the Fiscal Responsibility Act and the Executive will be approaching the National Assembly on this issue in due course.

52. On the expenditure side, a total of 450 billion Naira of the capital vote had been released as at the end of October 2017. With your support for our funding plan, our target is to release up to 50% of the capital vote for MDAs by the year’s end.  We have prioritised payments of our counterpart obligations on our concessionary loans, as well as funding of critical infrastructure and other projects with socio-economic benefits. Furthermore, MDAs have made provisions to carry over to the 2018 Budget, capital projects that are not likely to be fully funded by year-end 2017, to ensure project continuity.

53. Regrettably, the late passage of the 2017 Budget has significantly constrained budget implementation. As you are aware, the 1999 Constitution authorized necessary Federal Government expenditures prior to the 12th of June, 2017 when the 2017 Appropriation Act was signed into law. This year, we have worked very hard to achieve an earlier submission of the Medium-term Expenditure Framework and Fiscal Strategy Paper (MTEF/FSP), and the 2018 Appropriation Bill. Our efforts were to avail the National Assembly with sufficient time to perform its important duty of passing the Appropriation Bill into law, hopefully by the 1st of January, 2018. It is in this spirit that I solicit the cooperation of the Legislature in our efforts to return to a more predictable budget cycle that runs from January to December.

PRIORITIES FOR THE 2018 BUDGET OF CONSOLIDATION

54. The 2018 Budget Proposals are for a Budget of Consolidation. Our principal objective will be to reinforce and build on our recent accomplishments. Specifically, we will sustain the reflationary policies of our past two budgets. In this regard, the key parameters and assumptions for the 2018 Budget are as set out in the 2018-2020 Medium Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) and Fiscal Strategy Paper (FSP). These include:

a. Benchmark oil price benchmark of US$45 per barrel;

b. Oil production estimate of 2.3 million barrels per day, including condensates;

c. Exchange rate of N305/US$ for 2018;

d. Real GDP growth of 3.5 percent; and

e. Inflation Rate of 12.4 percent.

 Federally-Collectible Revenue Estimates

55. Based on the above fiscal assumptions and parameters, total federally-collectible revenue is estimated at 11.983 trillion Naira in 2018. Thus, the three tiers of Government shall receive about 12 percent more revenues in 2018 than the 2017 estimate. Of the amount, the sum of 6.387 trillion Naira is expected to be realised from oil and gas sources. Total receipts from the non-oil sector are projected at 5.597 trillion Naira.

Federal Government Revenue Estimates

56. The Federal Government’s estimated total revenue is 6.607 trillion Naira in 2018, which is about 30 percent more than the 2017 target. As we pursue our goal of revenue diversification, non-oil revenues will become a larger share of total revenues. In 2018, we project oil revenues of 2.442 trillion Naira, and non-oil as well as other revenues of 4.165 trillion Naira.

57. Non-oil and other revenue sources of 4.165 trillion Naira, include several items including: Share of Companies Income Tax (CIT) of 794.7 billion Naira, share of Value Added Tax (VAT) of 207.9 billion Naira, Customs & Excise Receipts of 324.9 billion Naira, FGN Independently Generated Revenues (IGR) of 847.9 billion Naira, FGN's Share of Tax Amnesty Income of 87.8 billion Naira, and various recoveries of 512.4 billion Naira, 710 billion Naira as proceeds from the restructuring of government’s equity in Joint Ventures and other sundry incomes of 678.4 billion Naira.

Proposed Expenditure for 2018

58. A total expenditure of 8.612 trillion Naira is proposed for 2018. This is a nominal increase of 16 percent above the 2017 Budget estimate. In keeping with our policy, 30.8 percent (or 2.652 trillion Naira) of aggregate expenditure (inclusive of capital in Statutory Transfers) has been allocated to the capital budget.

59. We expect our fiscal operations to result in a deficit of 2.005 trillion Naira or 1.77 percent of GDP. This reduction is in line with our plans under the ERGP to progressively reduce deficit and borrowings.

60. We plan to finance the deficit partly by new borrowings estimated at 1.699 trillion Naira. Fifty percent of this borrowing will be sourced externally, whilst the balance will be sourced domestically. The balance of the deficit of 306 billion Naira is to be financed from proceeds of privatisation of some non-oil assets by the Bureau of Public Enterprises (BPE).

61. The proposed 8.612 trillion Naira of 2018 Aggregate Expenditure comprises:

a. Recurrent Costs of N3.494 trillion;

b. Debt Service of N2.014 trillion;

c. Statutory Transfers of about N456 billion;

d. Sinking Fund of N220 billion (to retire maturing bond to Local Contractors);

e. Capital Expenditure of N2.428 trillion (excluding the capital component of Statutory Transfers).


Statutory Transfers



62. 456.46 billion Naira was provided in the 2018 Budget for Statutory Transfers. The 5 percent increase over last year’s provision is mainly due to increases in transfer to Niger Delta Development Commission (NDDC) and the Universal Basic Education Commission (UBEC), which are related directly to the size of oil revenue.

Debt Restructuring

63. We are closely monitoring our debt service to revenue ratio. We shall address this ratio through our non-oil revenue-generation drive and restructuring of the existing debt portfolio. Presently, domestic debt accounts for about 79 percent of the total debt. Our medium-term strategy is to reduce the proportion of our domestic debt to 60% by the end of 2019 and increase external debt to 40 percent. It is noteworthy that rebalancing our debt portfolio will enhance private sector access to domestic credit.  In addition, annual debt service costs will reduce as external debts are serviced at lower rates and repaid over a longer period than domestic debt.

Recurrent Expenditure

64. A substantial part of the recurrent cost proposal for 2018 is for the payment of salaries and overheads in key Ministries providing critical public services such as:

a. N510.87 billion for Interior;

b. N435.01 billion for Education;

c. N422.43 billion for Defence; and

d. N269.34 billion for Health.

The allocation to these Ministries represent significant increases over votes in previous budgets.

Personnel Costs

65. Personnel costs is projected to rise by 12 percent in 2018. Although we have made substantial savings by registering MDAs on the Integrated Personnel Payroll Information System (IPPIS) platform, the increase is mainly due to provision for staff promotion arrears, and recruitments by the Military, Police Force and para-military agencies. Furthermore, I have directed agencies are not to embark on any fresh recruitment unless they have obtained all the requisite approvals. Any breach of this directive will be severely sanctioned.

Overhead Costs

66. Overhead costs is projected to rise by 26 billion Naira in 2018, a modest increase of about 12 percent reflecting inflationary adjustments. MDAs are required to adhere to government regulations regarding cost control.

Capital Expenditure

67. To consolidate on the momentum of the 2017 Budget’s implementation, many ongoing capital projects have been provided for in the 2018 Budget. This is in line with our commitment to appropriately fund ongoing capital projects to completion. By allocating 30.8 percent of the 2018 Budget to capital expenditure, the Federal Government is also demonstrating its strong commitment to investing in critical infrastructure capable of spurring growth and creating jobs in the Nigerian economy.

68. Key capital spending allocations in the 2018 Budget include:

a. Power, Works and Housing: N555.88 billion;

b. Transportation: N263.10 billion;

c. Special Intervention Programmes: N150.00 billion;

d. Defence: N145.00 billion;

e. Agriculture and Rural Development N118.98 billion;

f. Water Resources: N95.11 billion;

g. Industry, Trade and Investment: N82.92 billion;

h. Interior: N63.26 billion;

i. Education N61.73 billion;

j. Universal Basic Education Commission: N109.06 billion;

k. Health: N71.11 billion;

l. Federal Capital Territory: N40.30 billion;

m. Zonal Intervention Projects N100.00 billion;

n. North East Intervention Fund N45.00 billion;

o. Niger Delta Ministry: N53.89 billion; and

p. Niger Delta Development Commission: N71.20 billion.

69. As I had previously indicated, we aim to consolidate on our achievements in 2017. We shall meet our counterpart funding obligations. We shall complete all ongoing projects. And we shall carry forward all strategic projects that were budgeted for but which we were unable to kick start due to liquidity challenges, late passage of the budget, prolonged contractual negotiations, and other matters.

70. Specifically, I would like to bring your attention to the following key projects and programmes that we are determined to implement in 2018:

a. N9.8 billion for the Mambilla hydro power project, including N8.5 billion as counterpart funding;

b. N12 billion counterpart funding for earmarked transmission lines and substations;

c. N35.41 billion for the National Housing Programme;

d. N10.00 billion for the 2nd Niger Bridge; and

e. About  N300 billion for the construction and rehabilitation of the strategic roads mentioned earlier.

Consolidating on the Social Intervention Programme

71. This Administration remains committed to pursuing a gender-sensitive, pro-poor and inclusive growth. We are keenly interested in catering for the most vulnerable. Accordingly, we have retained the 500 billion Naira allocation to the Social Intervention Programme. Under the programme, 100 billion Naira has been set aside for the Social Housing Programme.

72. Government will also continue to implement the Conditional Cash Transfer (CCT) programme, as well as the National Home-Grown School Feeding programme in 2018. These initiatives are already creating jobs and economic opportunity for local farmers and cooks, providing funding to artisans, traders and youths, as well as supporting small businesses with business education and mentoring.

Regional Spending Priorities for Peace, Security and Development

73. To maintain peace and security in the Niger Delta for economic and social activities to thrive, the provision of 65 billion Naira for the Presidential Amnesty Programme has been retained in the 2018 Budget. In addition, the capital provision for the Ministry of Niger Delta has been increased to 53.89 billion Naira from the 34.20 billion Naira provided in 2017. This is to further support the development in the region. We will complete all critical projects, including the East-West Road, which has a provision of about 17.32 billion Naira in 2018.

74. Across the nation, and particularly in the North East region, our commitment to the security of life and property remains absolute. We will ensure that our gallant men and women in arms are properly equipped and well-motivated. The result of our efforts is evident in the gradual return to normalcy in the North East. It is in this spirit that I recently assented to the North-East Development Commission Bill that was passed by this Distinguished House. We expect that this development will consolidate on our ongoing efforts to combat insurgency, reintegrate Internally Displaced Persons and rebuild communities in the North East Region, which have been adversely affected by the insurgency.

75. Similar attention is being given to efforts to reduce violent crime across the country. The Nigerian Army was recently deployed to combat the growing scourges of cattle rustling and banditry that have plagued our communities in Kaduna, Niger, Kebbi, Katsina and Zamfara States. We will also continue to arrest the incidence of Armed Robbery, Kidnapping and other Violent Crimes across our nation.

76. We have also increased our focus on cyber-crimes and the abuse of technology through hate speech and other divisive material that is being propagated on social media. Whilst we uphold the Constitutional rights of our people to freedom of expression and association, where the purported exercise of these rights infringes on the liberties of other citizens or threatens to undermine our National Security, we will take firm and decisive action.

77. In this regard, I reiterate my call for Nigerians to exercise restraint, tolerance and mutual respect in airing any grievances and frustrations. Whilst the ongoing national discourse on various political issues is healthy and welcome, we must not forget the lessons of our past. I trust that the vast majority of our people would rather tread the path of peace and prosperity, as we continue to uphold and cherish our Unity in Diversity.


CONCLUSION



78. Distinguished and Honourable Members of the National Assembly, you will recall that in my 2017 Budget Speech, I promised a new era for Nigeria and an end to the old ways of overdependence on oil revenues. The statistics and initiatives I mentioned clearly show that this new era has come and the old Nigeria is surely disappearing. We must, therefore, all work together to protect and sustain this CHANGE to create a new Nigeria:

a. A Nigeria that feeds itself;

b. A Nigeria that optimally utilizes its resources;

c. A Nigeria with a diversified, sustainable and inclusive economy.

79. Mr. Senate President, Mr. Speaker, Distinguished and Honourable Members of the National Assembly, this speech would be incomplete without commending the immense, patriotic and collaborative support of the National Assembly in the effort to move our great nation forward. I wish to assure you of the strong commitment of the Executive branch to deepen the relationship with the Legislature.

80. Nigeria is currently emerging from a very difficult economic period. If we all cooperate, and support one another, we can consolidate on our exit from the recession and firmly position Nigeria for economic prosperity. All the projects presented within this Budget have been carefully selected and subjected to extensive consultations and stakeholder engagements. As a Government, we are determined to bring succour to our people, improve their lives, and deliver on our promises to them. 2018 is a crucial year as we strive to ensure that we consolidate our successes and institutionalize the policies and practices that drove this turnaround.

81. I appeal to you to swiftly consider and pass the 2018 Appropriation Bill.

82. It is therefore with great pleasure and a deep sense of responsibility, that I lay before this Distinguished Joint Session of the National Assembly, the 2018 Budget Proposals of the Federal Government of Nigeria.

83. I thank you most sincerely for your attention.

84. May God bless the Federal Republic of Nigeria.

Monday, November 6, 2017

Is $60 Oil Too Tempting For OPEC?

Last week, a Bloomberg energy journalist tweeted from Riyadh, wondering why there are no mass celebrations of the fact that Brent was coming closer to $60 a barrel. Now that the international benchmark has passed the $60 barrier, one could imagine the top OPEC men rejoicing, albeit in private, as this was the much-coveted price level the cartel was after from the start.
Yet, this price level may provide an undesired outcome for OPEC, as some analysts have been warning for a while now. Here’s the danger: OPEC members have a history of cheating on production quotas. They’ve been cheating in this deal, too, with Saudi Arabia covering for them by pumping less than it agreed to. With Brent at $60, the temptation to cheat more may simply become too strong to resist.
The latest to sound the alarm was Stephen Brennock, a PVM Oil Associates analyst. Speaking to CNBC, Brennock noted that OPEC faces three challenges for the further success of its production cut deal.
First among these has to do with Libya and Nigeria, the exempted members of the cartel, which have since January brought on an additional 694,000 bpd to global supply. While Nigeria has signaled a willingness to cap its output at 1.8 million bpd, its current level, there’s nothing to guarantee it will go ahead with the cap now that Brent is over $60.
The second and the third challenges are related: The cheating has to stop, but how do you make it stop when prices are higher and there are markets with growing demand that producers outside the cut deal, chiefly U.S. shale boomers, would only be too happy to satisfy?
U.S. exports of crude oil hit a record of over 2.1 million bpd last month and they will only continue to grow as long as the spread between Brent and WTI remains as wide as it is now, making U.S. crude more attractive than Brent-tied Middle Eastern grades.
Russia is also taking over market share from OPEC thanks to the fact that its cut quota is a meager 300,000 bpd, which was cut from record-high daily production rate last November.
OPEC indeed has a lot of work to do to convince everyone to play by the rules. There is market-share grabbing among OPEC producers themselves: Iraq and Iran are growing their exports at the expense of Saudi Arabia, which has capped its shipments abroad to 6.6 million bpd last August.
Or let’s look at the latest price rally: it was caused not by major fact-based news about global supply falling within the OECD five-year average. Rather, it was caused by comments from Russia’s President Putin and Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister and Crown Prince that they will back an extension of the production cut deal.
While strong backing from the two leaders of the cut deal could speak volumes about the chance of the deal succeeding in eventually bringing supply down to the target level, but it’s by no means enough. If it was, compliance would be 100 percent from the get-go, which hasn’t been the case.
What’s an oil cartel to do in this situation? Perhaps the leader of the pack, Saudi Arabia, could somehow spread the “whatever it takes” attitude around with the argument that the more you comply, the higher prices will rise. Or an even better argument: if you don’t play ball, prices will drop to $40 a barrel—a not-impossible development.
By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com

The Market of Hope

Oxford dictionary defined hope as a feeling of expectation and desire for a particular thing to happen. Another version called archaic put i...